Stay informed: CanadaCovid-19
Statistics

Stay informed: CanadaCovid-19
Statistics

https://responsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Scientist-with-monitor-C-1.jpg

Updated on: September 10, 2020

Seeing the world
through numbers

Numbers are the ultimate object through which we see and quantify different phenomena, through them we understand our environment and also project events that will occur in the immediate future – with the help of computers we can sometimes look at the distant future.  It is however, charts and visualizations that allow us to immediately grasp a larger view of quantified events – the following are visualizations of the covid-19 impact on our world.

The data used for the statistics and visualizations shown in this website are collected from various sources including from the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center, the Government of Canada Coronavirus disease (covid-19), the World Health Organization Coronavirus disease (covid-19) Situation Dashboard and the Government of Quebec Situation of the coronavirus (covid-19) in Quebec.  The data are collected, analyzed and formatted daily by the Responsa team.

Current Situation

012345678900123456789001234567890                     ,012345678900123456789001234567890

Canadian confirmed cases of covid-19

01234567890                     ,012345678900123456789001234567890

Canadian deaths from covid-19

01234567890                     .012345678900123456789001234567890

Reproduction Number

012345678900123456789001234567890                     .01234567890

Deaths per 1 Million People

Confirmed Cases

The ambiguous definition of what constitute a “Confirmed Case” of covid-19 has made it difficult to analyze the data that is collected by the international health agencies. An element that skews the data is the exclusion of the so-called asymptomatic cases – those who are identified only after they have been tested. Notwithstanding, the number of confirmed cases in the data set used in the next geo chart are those published by the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center – by far the most reliable.

Covid-19 Cases
Covid-19 Cases
Covid-19 Deaths

Deaths per 1 Million People

According to the World Health Organization, the common flu causes 84 deaths per 1 million people in the world annually – covid-19 has already killed over 230 persons per 1 million people in Italy in less than 2 months. The argument that the common flu kills more people per million has by April 2nd, 2020 been debunked by the realities in: Spain – 221, Belgium – 87, France 85 and by tiny San Marino – 884 persons by 1 million people. The following Geo chart shows graphically the virulence of covid-19.

* The maximum range in the chart is intentionally set to 84 – the annual rates of the common flu for comparison.

Covid-19 Deaths per 1 Million People

Deaths per million people versus CasesDeaths

The bubble chart shows the number of covid-19 deaths per 1 million population versus the number of confirmed cases. This number is sadly extremely high both in Spain and Italy which has already 4 times the number of the common flu attributed deaths per million people.

How fast covid-19 is spreadingReproduction Number

The potential devastation of a pandemic lies in its ability to spread rapidly and forcefully. The calculation for its rate of transmissibility is quite simple, it involves calculating the average reproduction number of secondary cases generated per a typical infectious case. In other words, simply dividing the current total number of infected cases by the number of the previous period – as an example: dividing the number of confirmed covid-19 cases of March 26th, 2020 – 525,364 by the number of cases on March 25th, 2020 – 458,224 would give us 1.15 meaning that each case generates 0.15 new cases, a higher result means a rapid spread probably through crowding, conversely, a number close to 1 means a certain degree of control. The next geo chart shows the situation in each country – the ones in red are sadly in for a rude awakening.

Covid-19 Reproduction Number
World and selected countriesDaily covid-19 Reproduction Number

More onformationSelected Data

Provinces and Territories

Questions ?

So what do all these numbers mean?

Can any meaningful projections be made based on the data?

https://responsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/img_creative_5.jpg

re·spon·sa
answers

Yes, straight-line projections based on historical data can be made. In fact, linear projections made over the last several days have accurately predicted the outcome of the following days – these projections however, do not take into account any other variables that might occur as a result of a conscious intervention. The following projections show a probable outcome should the conditions remain as they are now.

https://responsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/img_creative_1-AE.jpg

statistical projections

While it will be political heresy to attempt to project what might happen in the coming days and weeks should the situation remain uncontrolled, it will be dishonest not to publish projections of a probable outcome based on the information that is readily available.  The algorithms used to generate the projection shown below are ironically very simple and accurate, especially for the immediate future.

Therefore, should there be no substantial change in the pattern of the pandemic propagation in Canada and should there not be an immediate medical solution, and assuming the Reproduction Number and the percent deaths of confirmed covid-19 cases shown at the top of the page remain relatively the same, then the following will occur in Canada by:

                    S                     e                     p                     t                     e                     m                     b                     e                     r                     0123456789001234567890                     ,                     01234567890012345678900123456789001234567890

There will be

012345678900123456789001234567890                     ,012345678900123456789001234567890

Confirmed cases of covid-19

and

0123456789001234567890                     ,012345678900123456789001234567890

Covid-19 related deaths

Stay informed

Keep up with RESPONSA and get instant news once in a while. We promise, no spam or similar emails, just pure goodiness.

https://responsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Responsa-Logo-for-header-21.png
About
Products
News
Subscribe

If you wish to receive our latest news in your email box, just subscribe to our newsletter. We won’t spam you, we promise!

About
Products
News
Subscribe

If you wish to receive our latest news in your email box, just subscribe to our newsletter. We won’t spam you, we promise!

R E S P O N S A

Responsa specializes in providing timely and contextual strategic information to businesses, government agencies and to non-profit organizations.

Contact us at:

info@responsa.com

Copyright 2020 All rights reserved | RESPONSA.